2001
Stochastic Rates of Return for Social Security Under Various Policy Scenarios
WP 2001-010 , UM00-03
In this paper, we compute distributions of rates of return by cohort for the Social Security retirement system, using a combination of historical data and stochastic forecasts of productivity and mortality rates. Since our forecasts of productivity and mortality are…
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Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking
WP 2001-007 , UM00-04
This paper utilizes a large set of subjective probability questions from the Health and Retirement Survey to construct an index measuring the precision of probabilistic beliefs (PPB) and relates this index to household choices about the riskiness of their portfolios…
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Eligibility for Social Security Disability Insurance
WP 2001-011 , UM00-06
In order to understand whom among the non-disabled older population experiences a health problem later in life and applies for Social Security Disability Insurance, it is necessary to investigate patterns of coverage and reasons for non-coverage. This paper shows that…
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Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving
WP 2001-012 , UM00-08
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, this paper measures knowledge about future social security and pension benefits by comparing respondent reports of their expected benefits with benefits calculated from social security earnings records and employer provided descriptions of…
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Modeling the Macroeconomic Implications of Social Security Reform
WP 2001-015 , UM00-11
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Wealth, Inequality, and Altruistic Bequests
WP 2001-017 , UM00-11
This paper examines the role of bequests and inter vivos gifts in the U.S. economy, considering their importance in determining (i) the economy’s aggregate capital stock, (ii) the distribution of private net worth, and (iii) public policy outcomes and options.…
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Wealth Accumulation in the U.S.: Do Inheritances and Bequests Play a Significant Role?
WP 2001-019 , UM00-11
This paper formulates an overlapping generations model with both life–cycle saving and altruistic bequests. For a given distribution of earning abilities, the model generates a stationary steady–state capital–to–labor ratio for the economy as a whole and a stationary distribution of…
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Secular Changes in Wealth Inequality and Inheritance
WP 2001-020 , UM00-11
Data suggest the distribution of wealth among households in the United States and the United Kingdom has become more equal over the last century — though the pattern may have reversed recently. This paper shows that a model in which…
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Health, Wealth and Gender: Do Health Shocks of Husbands and Wives Have Different Impacts on Household Wealth?
WP 2001-016 , UM01-06
The extent to which men’s versus women’s health affects household wealth and the mechanisms through which these effects occur have important implications for the welfare of older individuals living with a spouse, and in particular for women who are likely…
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Informal Caregiving for Diabetes and Diabetic Complications Among Elderly Americans
WP 2001-013 , UM01-11
Objectives: Little is known regarding the amount of time spent by unpaid caregivers providing help to elderly individuals for disabilities associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). We sought to obtain nationally representative estimates of the time, and associated cost, of informal…
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