2003
Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited
WP 2003-059 , UM02-11
An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We provide a theoretical framework and an…
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The Impact of Financial Education on Savings and Asset Allocation
WP 2003-061 , UM03-06
The responsibility to save and contribute to a pension is increasingly left to the individual worker. Understanding how households save and prepare for retirement is of paramount importance. There is concern in the U.S. that many families have little or…
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Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities versus Phased Withdrawal Plans
WP 2003-063 , UM04-12
How might retirees consider deploying the retirement assets accumulated in a defined contribution pension plan? One possibility would be to purchase an immediate annuity. Another approach, called the “phased withdrawal” strategy in the literature, would have the retiree invest his…
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Early Retirement Windows
WP 2003-064 , UM02-07
What happens to the employment status and earnings of workers who accept earlyretirement windows? Using data from the first six waves of HRS (1992-2002) I find that those who accepted window offers experience a sharp decline in employment - most…
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Medicare Gaps and Widow Poverty
WP 2003-065 , UM03-08
Several categories of medical expenditures are not covered by Medicare, including prescription drugs, most nursing home stays, and extended hospital visits. Out-of-pocket costs for these items can be substantial, and what’s more, they are likely to be concentrated at the…
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Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
WP 2003-062 , UM03-11
This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis,…
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2002
The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming
WP 2002-021 , UM00-05
This research examines the relationship between mortality risk and retirement, and mortality risk and the propensity to take early and reduced Social Security benefits. The main theory for understanding saving behavior is the life-cycle model (LCH). The LCH, however, can…
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Applications, Denials, and Appeals for Social Security Disability Insurance
WP 2002-032 , UM00-06
This project explores the process by which older workers apply for, and are awarded, Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) benefits. Our focus is on how and whether DI serves as a path out of the labor market at older ages.…
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How Exits from the Labor Force or Death Impact Household Incomes: A Four Country Comparison of Public and Private Income Support
WP 2002-033 , UM00-10
Government policies attempt to mitigate the economic risks to households of major life transitions. This paper focuses on two such transitions that social security systems typically insure against—long term exits from the labor market (retirement, disability, unemployment insurance) and the…
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Dropping Out of Social Security
WP 2002-022 , UM01-01
The liability facing a pay-as-you-go social security system can be calculated in several ways. The exact liability measure chosen can significantly affect the conversion of a public pay-as-you-go system to a system based on individually funded accounts. Most conversions, including…
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