2018
SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement
WP 2018-382 , UM17-06
This paper develops an innovative approach to measuring the effect of health on retirement. The approach elicits subjective probabilities of working at specified time horizons fixing health level. Using a treatment-effect framework, within-individual differences in elicited probabilities of working given…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Using Consequence Messaging to Improve Understanding of Social Security
WP 2018-383 , UM18-09
In this paper, we developed and evaluated “consequence messaging,” a behaviorally motivated communication strategy in which we used vignettes — video and written stories about hypothetical people — to explain the consequences of decisions. We studied two related areas where…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Social Security Household Benefits: Measuring Program Knowledge
WP 2018-384 , UM18-05
Social Security offers two types of benefits for spouses: spousal and survivor benefits. Regardless of his or her own work history, a married individual can claim spousal Social Security benefits, which are equal to half of his or her spouse’s…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
WP 2018-385 , UM18-Q2
After peaking around the year 2000, the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) of Americans declined substantially, falling faster after the financial crisis of 2007. Since 2015, the LFPR has remained at its lowest in four decades. In this paper, we…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Addressing Social Security’s Solvency While Promoting High Labor Force Participation
WP 2018-386 , UM18-10
A number of proposals and options to address OASI trust-fund solvency have been suggested in recent years. The present work attempts to examine solvency-promoting reforms from the standpoint of economic efficiency — that is, from the perspective of their effect…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Assessing Economic Resources in Retirement: The Role of Irregular Withdrawals from Tax-Advantaged Retirement Accounts
WP 2018-387 , UM18-Q4
Irregular withdrawals from IRAs and DC pensions are not included in standard measures of household income in the CPS or Health and Retirement Study. Yet, among retirees such withdrawals can supplement regular retirement income to finance consumption. It has been…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Addition to the RAND HRS Longitudinal Files: IRA Withdrawals in the HRS, 2000 to 2014
WP 2018-388 , UM18-Q3
In support of research on the older population, we produced cleaned variables based on data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to capture information on withdrawals from individual retirement accounts (IRAs). Where necessary, imputations for missing values have been…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Local Economic Hardship and Its Role in Life Expectancy Trends
WP 2018-389 , UM18-07
Recent research has found, in some groups of Americans, dramatic increases in deaths due to drug overdose and suicide and an overall stagnation of trends toward increased longevity. This study examines the link between mortality of older working age (45…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
Relative Sizes of Age Cohorts and Labor Force Participation of Older Workers
WP 2018-390 , UM18-08
We study the effects of the size of older cohorts on labor force participation (LFP) and wages of older workers. In the standard relative supply framework usually applied to relative cohort size, we would expect larger older cohorts to experience…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract
How Well Can Medicare Records Identify Seniors with Cognitive Impairment Needing Assistance with Financial Management?
WP 2018-391 , UM18-03
Aging countries should have an interest in policies to assist older beneficiaries in managing finances when there is a need. This project investigated the value of Medicare records as a guide to identifying persons with cognitive impairment in need of…
Download: Working Paper
View: Abstract
View: Abstract