2006
Americans’ Dependency on Social Security
WP 2006-126 , UM06-16
According to a recent estimate by Gokhale and Smetters (2005), the present value difference between the U.S. government’s projected future expenditures and its projected future tax receipts exceeds $60 trillion. Closing this enormous fiscal gap requires a variety of different…
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How Changes in Social Security Affect Retirement Trends
WP 2006-127 , UM06-02
For married men, we find the conventional view of retirement trends -- that the long term trend to early retirement has been reversed -- is partially contradicted by recent data. Specifically, descriptive data collected from both the Census and the…
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How Accurate are Expected Retirement Savings?
WP 2006-128 , UM06-04
This paper examines the ability of workers nearing retirement to report their expected retirement savings, where retirement savings refers to funds held in savings, checking, and investment-type accounts. Responding to such a question is likely to be difficult, even for…
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Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming
WP 2006-129 , UM06-09
This study analyzes the extent to which an individual’s survival expectations influence his or her decision to claim social security benefits at an early age. We find that subjective survival probabilities capture meaningful behavioral responses to incentives for early Social…
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Financial Risk, Retirement, Saving and Investment
WP 2006-130 , UM06-12
This paper considers the prospects for adding choice of portfolio composition to a life cycle model of retirement and saving, while preserving the ability of the model to continue to explain the course of saving and retirement. If eventually successful,…
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Men With Health Insurance and the Women Who Love Them: the Effect of a Husband’s Retirement on His Wife’s Health Insurance Coverage
WP 2006-131 , UM06-15
Health insurance coverage in the years prior to retirement is particularly important because it protects the household from the financial risks of uninsurance as well as the health consequences of delaying care while uninsured. While results from the retirement “job…
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Understanding Trading Behavior in 401(k) Plans
WP 2006-125 , UM05-S2
We use a new database covering 1.2 million active participants to study trading activities in 1,530 defined contribution retirement plans. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis indicate some interesting trading patterns. First, we show that trading activity in 401(k) accounts is…
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Alternative Measures of Replacement Rates
WP 2006-132 , UM06-03
This study finds that on average those just past the usual retirement age are adequately prepared for retirement in that they will be able to follow a path of consumption that begins at their current level of consumption and then…
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Discouraged Workers? Job Search Outcomes of Older Workers
WP 2006-133 , UM06-21
Many have suggested we adopt policies that explicitly encourage the elderly to work. Behind this suggestion is the assumption that if an older person desires a job, one will be found; however, little is known about the extent to which…
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A Dynamic Model of Retirement and Social Security Reform Expectations: A Solution to the New Early Retirement Puzzle
WP 2006-134 , UM06-17
The need for Social Security Reform in the next years is hardly a matter of debate. Therefore, the widespread believe among Americans that Social Security will not be able to pay benefits in the long run at the level that…
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