Earnings Growth as a Predictor of Mortality with an Application to Immigrant Mortality

Published: 2010
Project ID: UM10-24


This project measures how earnings growth (measured by changes in earnings over various periods in the life cycle) affects mortality.  Previous research has found inconsistent results regarding the effects of levels of education and income on mortality. We hypothesize that earnings growth provides a more stable and powerful predictor of mortality. One test of this hypothesis will be to determine whether earnings growth can explain important differences in native and immigrant mortality. More generally, this work will improve predictions of mortality in micro-simulation models, help elucidate the relationship between immigration and Social Security, and aid measurements of emigration.