Winter 2020 Newsletter: Panel offers a tune up for SSA trustees’ report

Every year the Social Security Administration’s Board of Trustees and the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) produce a report on the health of the Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust funds. OCACT’s projections rest on…

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Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context

Long-term interest rates have been falling globally since the early 1980s and have reached historically low levels. Past forecasts largely missed this secular decline. This paper reviews methodologies for making long-term interest rate projections. We synthesize results from studies that…

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Investigating the Difference in Mortality Estimates between the Social Security Administration Trustees’ Report and the Human Mortality Database

This study’s goal was to determine whether differences in data or differences in methods explain the divergence between the mortality estimates at ages 65 and older of the Social Security Administration (SSA) and the Human Mortality Database (HMD). These differences,…

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Addressing Social Security’s Solvency While Promoting High Labor Force Participation

A number of proposals and options to address OASI trust-fund solvency have been suggested in recent years. The present work attempts to examine solvency-promoting reforms from the standpoint of economic efficiency — that is, from the perspective of their effect…

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Forecasting Survival by Socioeconomic Status and Implications for Social Security Benefits

Both wealth and mortality inequality have increased, which will lead to greater aggregate Social Security payouts because individuals with greater annual benefits will live longer. An important question is whether the trend in mortality inequality will continue. We propose a…

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