2019
Subjective Expectations, Social Security Benefits, and the Optimal Path to Retirement
WP 2019-405 , UM19-06
Americans face the challenges of retirement with varying degrees of preparation. Evidence indicates that that many individuals may not be making the best possible choices with respect to their Social Security and retirement savings. We assess the subjective expectations of…
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Recent Trends in Disability and the Implications for Use of Disability Insurance
WP 2020-406 , UM19-01
Abstract: The health of the working-aged population is a key driver of enrollment in and spending by the two most important federal disability programs, Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). Recent studies have found that some…
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Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security Totalization Agreements
WP 2019-407 , UM19-Q1
The United States has signed international social security totalization agreements with 30 countries. For persons working in a foreign country during part of their careers, these agreements reduce double taxation on social security burdens and reduce the risk of not…
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Consumer Credit Events Before and After Dementia Diagnosis
WP 2019-418 , UM18-02
Anecdotal evidence suggests that changes in thinking and memory due to dementia can lead to large financial losses. We test this using linked Medicare claims and FRBNY/Equifax CCP data. We find that missed payments increase up to 4 years prior…
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2018
A Review of U.S. Federal and State Means-Tested Programs
WP 2018-376 , UM17-Q1
This report presents a review of the major U.S. federal and state means-tested programs, including a review of how they operate, common features, and rules governing eligibility. The review covers the nature of the target recipient population, the nature of…
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Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions
WP 2018-378 , UM17-13
Behavioral economics lacks empirical evidence on some foundational questions. We adapt standard elicitation methods to measure multiple behavioral factors per person in a representative U.S. sample, along with financial condition, cognitive skills, financial literacy, classical preferences, and demographics. Individually, behavioral…
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Intergenerational Altruism and Transfers of Time and Money: A Life-cycle Perspective
WP 2018-379 , UM17-15
Parental investments in children can take one of three broad forms: (1) Time investments during childhood and adolescence that aid child development, and in particular cognitive ability; (2) educational investments that improve school quality and hence educational outcomes; (3) cash…
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Shocks and Transitions from Career Jobs to Bridge Jobs and Retirement: A New Approach
WP 2018-380 , UM17-04
This research provides new empirical evidence on late-life labor market activities of American households from a new survey implemented under the Vanguard Research Initiative. The survey features following innovations: It measures detailed job characteristics not only of a career job…
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A Meta-Analysis of the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate
WP 2018-381 , UM18-Q5
This project explores the causes behind the recent decline in the Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate. The analysis examines the evolution of the LFP rate for different demographic groups to gauge the effect of demographic changes. An integral part of…
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SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement
WP 2018-382 , UM17-06
This paper develops an innovative approach to measuring the effect of health on retirement. The approach elicits subjective probabilities of working at specified time horizons fixing health level. Using a treatment-effect framework, within-individual differences in elicited probabilities of working given…
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