UM04-06: Using a Structural Retirement Model to Simulate the Effect of Changes to the OASDI and Medicare Programs



We will use a dynamic programming model estimated with data from the Health and Retirement Study to simulate the behavioral effects of various reforms to the OASDI and Medicare programs. Among the reforms we will simulate are changes in the normal retirement age, changes in the age of eligibility for Medicare benefits, and changes in the strictness of the medical evaluation of applicants for DI benefits. Along with the behavioral effects of such changes, we will be interested in the effects on the distribution of family incomes among households with members nearing retirement age.


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