2003
UM03-12: Welfare Measures in a Stochastic Production Economy with Overlapping Generations: An Application to Social Security Reform
General-equilibrium analyses of Social Security reforms have usually been analyzed using either deterministic models or models with idiosyncratic wage shocks. Since aggregate uncertainty does not exist in these models, prices can be perfectly forecasted. As a result, stocks and bonds…
UM03-13: Understanding Patterns of Social Security Benefit Receipt, Pensions Incomes, Retirement and Saving By Race, Ethnicity, Gender and Marital Status: A Structured Approach
The project will examine the distributions of AIME, PIA and resulting own and spouse benefits, patterns of benefit acceptance, by race, ethnicity, gender and marital status. We then will fit a joint structural model of retirement and wealth for each…
UM03-14: Take-up of the Supplemental Security Income Program by the Low-Income Elderly: Interactions with the Social Security System
The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program provides an income and health care safety net for the elderly poor. The phenomenon of apparently eligible households that do not enroll in, or 'take up' SSI has been noted as a severe problem…
UM03-15: Back to Work: Trends in Post-Retirement Employment
Retirement is often modeled as an absorbing state. But in fact, many people return to paid work after they retire—that is, they unretire. Despite an extensive literature on retirement behavior, little is known about unretirement. An individual might go back…
UM03-C1: Impact of the 1996 SSI Childhood Disability Reforms on Affected Children and Families
The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 changed the definition of disability used to determine eligibility for disabled children under the Supplemental Security Income program and made other changes in the program. The law required the redetermination…
UM03-D1: Dissertation Research: “Elderly Households and Housing Wealth: Do They Use It or Lose It?”
Over 80 percent of households in their 50s are homeowners and housing wealth accounts for over half of total household wealth for most of these homeowners. The evidence in the literature on whether the elderly are consuming their housing wealth…
UM03-D2: Dissertation Research: “Defined Benefit Pension Plan Liabilities and International Asset Allocation”
Despite the integration of international capital markets and the relaxation of capital controls, U.S. defined benefit pension plans do not sufficiently diversify their assets across international holdings. In this paper, we explore whether incorporating liabilities in the asset allocation decision…
UM03-D3: Dissertation Research: “The Employment of Working Age People with Disabilities: A Comparison of PSID and CPS Results”
Using a single period measure to capture the population with disabilities in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics we observe the same dramatic decline in the relative employment rate of working age people with disabilities in the 1990s that is…
UM03-Q1: Stochastic Modeling of Trust Fund using Assumptions from 2002 OASDI Trustees Report
We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving…
UM03-S1: Jr Scholar Research: “Do The Newly Retired Adjust Their Consumption or Labor Supply When Their Retirement Wealth Drops?”
Since the mid-nineties, the stock market has had an unprecedented impact on the wealth of current and future retirees. The sharp declines in stock values since 2000 reduced the wealth of many retirees. This study quantifies the magnitude of the…