2001

UM01-07: Mental Health and Labor Force Exits: The Mediating or Moderating Roles of Physical Health and Job Factors

This project extends earlier health and work studies by examining how mental health affects transitions out of paid work in the years prior to the traditional Social Security retirement ages. Given recent changes in the labor market, optimal mental health…

UM01-08: Improving Modeling Behavioral Response to Policy Change: Mircosimulation in the Presence of Heterogeneity

This paper develops a method that improves researchers’ ability to account for behavioral responses to policy change in microsimulation models. Current microsimulation models are relatively simple, in part because of the technical difficulty of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. This is…

UM01-09: The Impact of Social Security and Medicare on Retirement Incentives: Exploiting Variation in Coverage

We examine the retirement behavior of federal civil service workers. This research contributes to the literature that more generally examines how retirement behavior responds to financial incentives. The civil service workers in our study provide an interesting case study because…

UM01-10: Website Access to Stochastic Dynamic Model of OASDI

Our broad goal is to develop and extend work on stochastic models of the demographic and economic components of the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance [OASDI] trust fund. For this project, we set up a (free) web site that…

UM01-11: Implications of Chronic Health Conditions on Work-Force Participation: Disability, Retirement, Caregiving, and Lost Productivity

Abstract from first paper: Little is known regarding the amount of time spent by unpaid caregivers providing help to elderly individuals for disabilities associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). We sought to obtain nationally representative estimates of the time, and associated…

UM01-C1: The Influence of Lifetime Earning Variance on Retirement Wealth

This study explores how earnings variability is related to retirement wealth. Past research has demonstrated that the average American household on the verge of retirement would need to save substantially more, in order to preserve consumption flows in old age.…

2000

UM00-01: Social Security and Retirement Behavior Within the Family: Economic Estimate of a Structural Model Using HRS Employer Provided Pension Data and Social Security Earnings Records

This paper further extends our efforts to understand how household decision-making works and the relation of decisions made within the household to incentives from Social Security and pensions. A structural model of family retirement decision making is es

UM00-02: Saving for Retirement: Implications of Household Bargaining for Social Security and Tax Reform

Traditional economic models treat the household as a single individual, and do not allow for separate preferences of and possible conflicts of interest between husbands and wives. Since wives are typically younger than their husbands and life expectancy for women…

UM00-03: Stochastic Modeling of the Dynamics of OASDI: Characteristics of Cohort Experience, and Aspects of Risk

In this study, we compute distributions of rates of return by cohort for the Social Security retirement system, using a combination of historical data and stochastic forecasts of productivity and mortality rates. Since our forecasts of productivity and mortality are…

UM00-04: Implications of Cognitive and Physical Impairment for Management of Financial Resources Including Individual Accounts

This study utilizes a large set of subjective probability questions from the Health and Retirement Survey to construct an index measuring the precision of probabilistic beliefs (PPB) and relates this index to household choices about the riskiness of their portfolios…

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