UM16-Q2: Joint analysis of the long-run interest rate, productivity growth, and demographics in the U.S. and the global economy



The U.S. economy has experienced a decade of slow productivity growth and three decades of falling real interest rates. Some recent economic analyses suggest that these changes may represent long-term trends. This raises the question of how to incorporate this information into economic assumptions in actuarial balance projections. The proposed project will draw on relevant theoretical results and macroeconomic data for the U.S. and world economies to quantify the influences of productivity and demographic trends on the long-run interest rate and to assess economic assumptions used in long-range projections.


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